emergingmarkets

In China, the super rich routinely expect luxury goods stores to pamper them with VIP treatment. Beijing, as the single biggest buyer of US Treasury bonds (it currently holds $1.17 trillion of the stuff), appears to expect nothing less than VVIP treatment from Washington. And what China wants, China gets. According to Reuters, the People’s Bank...

It’s been a good year for emerging markets bonds. Even as investors – unnerved by the latest development in the eurozone debt crisis and the dim outlook for a US recovery – continue to pull out of EM equities and EM currencies, appetite for EM bonds shows no sign of abating. EM bond issues, at $403.2bn for the first five months...

When travelling from Falcon Private Bank’s Zurich headquarters to its office in Dubai’s Emaar Square, David Pinkerton flies over Alps, seas and deserts. But when he lands, he finds a country with one decidedly Swiss characteristic. “Whether it’s Egypt or concerns about Iran, people consider the UAE a safe haven, the Switzerland of the Middle...

The Greek storm is buffeting the world’s economy, but Poland has not yet fallen victim to the gloom. New industrial production numbers for April show a 2.9 per cent increase over the same period a year earlier. Particularly strong were exports of things like chemicals, electronic products and machinery, all the sorts of products that are fed into...

International hotel chains are increasing their presence in Africa, but getting the buildings constructed isn’t getting any easier. At the end of February, there were 208 signed deals for new international hotel projects on the continent. At the same point last year, there were 159 total projects in the pipeline, according to an industry...

Maarten-Jan Bakkum, emerging markets strategist at ING, thinks the days of huge emerging market returns are over. Which countries look vulnerable, and which are still good choices for investors?

Indian TV fans anticipating a free download of the latest episodes of Mad Men and Game of Thrones on Monday morning, hours after they aired in the US, found themselves out of luck, as a seemingly ad hoc and arbitrary clampdown on file-sharing sites continued.

The shock victory of former ultranationalist Tomislav Nikolic in Serbia’s presidential election makes the country’s immediate future more uncertain but radical changes to economic policy are unlikely. Obligations to the International Monetary Fund and European Union and the strength of Serbia’s own institutions will give the new government...

By Andrei Skvarsky.

Renaissance Capital argues that this month’s 7.2% decline of the Russian ruble versus the dollar is not much to worry about.

Various currencies have been going down against the dollar, and the ruble has been doing better than, for example, the Polish zloty, the Hungarian forint or the Czech koruna, which have slid versus the dollar by 9.6%, 9.7% and 7.4% respectively since the start of May, Milena Ivanova-Venturini, deputy head of equity research at the Moscow-based investment firm, points out.

Nor does RenCap expect the weaker ruble to fuel inflation as “the global shock is deflationary by nature”, Ivanova-Venturini says. And, besides, the Russian consumer is more mature and no longer reacts to the ruble’s weakening by “running to the bank” to convert rubles into foreign currency deposits.

The weaker ruble is likely to benefit resource companies, among them Rosneft, Lukoil, Uralkali, Phosagro and Rusal, according to Ivanova-Venturini.

* Wen growth pledge spurs speculation of China stimulus * Nigeria oil deal puts focus on energy sector * Alibaba and Yahoo reach buyback deal

As recently as a year ago, the Indian government was forecasting 9 per cent GDP growth, but with each passing month, it’s looking like they have read that figure upside down. Morgan Stanley on Monday became the latest authority to downgrade India’s growth forecast, revising its 6.9 per cent projection for the fiscal year ending in March 2013 to...

Another day, another step towards stimulus? Premier Wen Jiabao said over the weekend he wanted to see more steps taken to boost Chinese growth. He gave no detail of what those steps might be but it was still a spot of good news for those invested in Chinese railway stocks on Monday, which all received a boost.

Monday’s picks from the BB team: worries over Petrobras; Samsung rising; and the EM-DM gap is narrower, ratings-wise. Plus: China’s small stick; capital flight from India; Ukraine as the bad guy; and a bull diminished.

A United Arab Emirates firm has agreed to invest up to $3bn in Egyptian land reclamation “mega-projects” that would turn 100,000 acres into agricultural fields, according to the website of Egypt’s General Authority for Investment.

The Indian Premier League is the world’s most lucrative cricket tournament, valued at over $4bn. But recent corruption allegations against players is threatening the league’s reputation. James Crabtree reports on its future.

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While Emerging Markets traded sideways over the past two weeks, Frontier Markets performed extremely well. It will come as no surprise that investor concerns over Europe, worsening economic data around the world and therefore portfolio profit and loss protection were key drivers of sentiment.

We sense that as the Summer period gets closet, the increased political risk premium, the risks surrounding EU austerity programmes, new issuance, and indeed spread tightening are likely to abate. Ernst & Young published its 2012 Africa Attractiveness Survey. Key findings were that Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) projects grew by 27% in 2011, making the African continent the recipient of roughly 25% of global FDI. This inflow, accounting for roughly $80bn, should further swell up to US$150bn by 2015.

Despite this impressive improvement, Africa remains “the least attractive” destination for those investors not already invested in the region – this underlines the existence of a perception gap. The report highlights that “intra-African investment has grown substantially, more so than any other category in the last four years, being led by South Africa, Kenya and Nigeria”.

The Performance of the GCC and the Egyptian markets during the period under review was mixed with three out of eight markets ending positive. Egypt and Kuwait markets were the best performers increasing as they made up for the pit stop during the past few weeks. Dubai and Saudi Arabia markets were the worst performers declining by 8.87% and 6.01% respectively.

The Moroccan Market witnessed further losses in the first couple of weeks of May. Lack of intervention from local institutional investors and some profit taking from foreign investors ahead of MSCI EM rebalancing have deepened Morocco’s YTD losses.

Further losses might be expected in the remaining trading sessions of the month of May as MSCI EM cut morocco’s position in its EM index and we shall see further selling from foreign investors before locals start buying at very attractive valuations.

Tunisia’s Exchange further extended its positive streak during the first half of May. Solid Q1 results have led Local retail investors to increase their exposure to equities.

Spending by wealthy Chinese tourists has become such a boost for stores in major capitals in Paris, London and Hong Kong in the past couple of years that it is hard to imagine the world of luxury without them. But, by focusing on the exaggerated effects on Hong Kong’s retail sector, UBS economist Silvia Liu has underlined just how extraordinary...

Thailand was expected to have a strong year in 2012 as it rebounded from severe flooding last year, which shut down factories, disrupted supply chains, and crimped consumer spending. The Q1 growth figures, released on Monday, showed a bounce that is both bigger and sooner than expected.

There comes a time in the life cycle of most commodities when China takes over in terms of demand. For gold, long the preserve of India, that moment is nearly upon us.

Vladimir Putin has unveiled Russia’s new cabinet… and the make-up is largely as expected. Confirming rumours that have swirled around since Putin’s inauguration, we now know that Igor Shuvalov will remain first deputy prime minister, and that Arkady Dvorkovich, Medvedev’s chief economic aide, will join the cabinet for the...